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Fed's Kocherlakota: U. In other words, as one angle is penetrated, expect prices to move and consolidate at the next angle. Gann developed several techniques for studying mar- ket action. These include Gann angles, Gann fans, Gann grids, and cardinal squares. A Gann fan displays lines at each of the angles that Gann iden- tified.
This is an 80 80 grid on which each line is 1 1, and the lines are spaced 80 weeks apart. Gann based his market trading and forecasting methods on time, as well as on price, and said repeatedly that time is most important when it comes to analyzing and forecasting market movements. Being able to forecast both time and price is the ultimate goal of technical analysis, and many believe that it is impossible to do; the legend of Gann, however, stands as the main opposition to this belief.
Time is the most important factor. They can be extended extrap- olated to , , and percent. Gann believed that human nature is constant and that this shows up in repetitive price patterns that are identifiable and which therefore can be acted on to increase profit potential.
Here is the procedure: 1. Determine the time units. One common way to determine a time unit is to study the chart and look at the distances over which price movements occur. Then put the angles to the test and see how accurate they are. The intermediate-term time frame one to three months tends to produce the optimal number of pat- terns compared with short-term daily or multiyear charts. Determine the high or low from which to draw the Gann lines.
The most common way to accomplish this is to complement it with other forms of technical analysis, that is, Fibonacci levels or pivot points. Decide which pattern to use. The three most common patterns are the 1 1, the 1 2, and the 2 1. These are simply variations of the slope of the line.
For example, the 1 2 is half the slope of the 1 1. The numbers simply indicate the number of units. Look for patterns. The direction would be either downward and to the right from a high point or upward and to the right from a low point. Look for repeat patterns on the chart. The basis of this technique is the premise that markets are cyclical.
The most common use for Gann angles when predicting the market is to indicate support and resistance levels. Quite simply, predicting the market using Gann, angles adds a new dimension to support and resistance levels in that they can be diagonal. The optimal balance between time and price exists when prices move identically with time. This occurs when the Gann angle is at 45 degrees.
In total, there are nine different Gann angles. When one of these trend lines is broken, the following angle will provide the next level of support or resistance. He first considered wholesale prices and then looked at interest rates, wages, and foreign trade. Finally, he analyzed data on the production and consumption of coal, pig iron, and lead. He adjusted production figures to allow for population change and used a nine-year moving average to remove statistical noise.
Kondratiev thought that the presence of a long wave was probable but could not be specific as to its cause, deeming it to be inherent in a capitalist economy. He postulated that it could arise because of the wearing out of capital goods, but he admitted that lack of reliable data cur- tailed conclusive verification. Numerous critics have attacked his methodology. What was dangerously unacceptable to his Communist masters was the idea that there was an inherent self-correcting mechanism perpetuating capitalism.
And following that, there was to be only one rising phase, leading to eternal bliss under Communism. Kondratiev died in the Gulag in at the age of His work was later updated by other economists using his original methodology.
Beveridge — studied wheat prices back to the s and is reputed to have deduced them back to He discovered many cycles, publishing his findings in and three years earlier than Kondratiev. One of these cycles occurred every 50 to 60 years, with an average periodicity of 54 years. The long-wave rhythm, which varies from 45 to 60 years, has attained its periodicity from averaging a wide distribution.
It is widely known as the Kondratiev wave or, less elegantly, as the K-wave. Economists generally recognize four major cycles, or regular fluctuations, in the economy as follows: 1. Kondratiev Wave 77 J. Schumpeter, who served as president of the American Economic Society in the s, was an outstanding student of economic cycles. He believed that the various cycles are interde- pendent, in contrast with the views of others such as Forrester, who believed that the cycles act independently of one another.
Schumpeter baptized three of the four cycles by naming them after their discoverers. Kondratiev identified three historic waves: 1.
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