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Congress has been working on legislation that would levy tough sanctions against companies doing business directly, or to some degree indirectly, with designated terror supporting states, and may involve seizure of the U. Another piece of legislation under consideration would eliminate current exemptions for major oil companies doing business in restricted countries.
Law of Unintended Consequences: If the sanctions legislation passes, as we think it will in some form, there will be confusion in the securities markets until the regulations are promulgated and the administration of them is clear in practice. The confusion will manifest itself as extra volatility in prices of stocks that may or may not come under the hammer of the law. The legislation will contain loopholes and unexpected problems.
Unintended consequences of implementation will create additional administrative exceptions. Until it is all settled in terms of administrative interpretation of the legislation, extra volatility will persist in potentially impacted stocks. Those thought to be OK may experience multiple expansion as a result. Implementation problems will arise because the world is a totally interconnected system and it will be difficult to impossible to create clear lines of demarcation on what is trading with the enemy and what is not.
Consider questions such as these: Will major oil companies be required to abandon billions of dollars of long established properties and operations in designated states to avoid seizure of U. Will a major consumer staples company have its U. Will the U. If a company is a parts or material supplier to a company that in turn does business with a terrorist state, will that supplier be sanctioned too? How many levels in the supply chain would be implicated?
Would a utility company supplying energy to a violating company be legally exposed to penalties if they knew the company was on a government terror list? Would they have the authority to refuse to provide electricity or gas without breaking other laws and contracts?
Would a country like France, that has long standing business connections with Iran, stand idly by as the French economy was damaged by the impact of the U. China has long term energy supply relationships with Iran. How would U. Will mutual funds be taxed or regulated differently if they include companies on the terror list than those that exclude those companies?
The Fund's Problem: It is very difficult to avoid owning companies on the terror list if an investor uses funds, as most retail investors do. The only effective way to avoid owning terror list stocks is to manage an individual stock portfolio, or to buy a specialist fund that represents itself as terror-free. Will the government take steps to require mutual funds, pension plans, endowments and other pooled investments to divest of companies on the terror list?
If they did, would they step on the secret and hallowed ground of the hedge fund industry? There are some groups pressing for voluntary and state mandated divestment by public pension funds, as well as federal requirements for mutual funds and endowments to divest.
Others are pushing back with arguments that voluntary divestment will not work and that state regulations have been found by some courts to be assumption of foreign policy decisions that are outside of the scope of authority for states. Still others say that plan administrators do not have the authority to subordinate fiduciary obligations to maximize return to social causes. Where they all seem to agree is that if anything comprehensive is to be accomplished with respect to pensions, endowments, mutual funds and other regulated investment funds, it will have to come from federal legislation and regulation.
The Oil Problem: The concept of not consorting with the enemy via commerce is a good one in principle, but how effective will it actually be at increasing security? Take the case of oil. The money we all pay for gasoline and heating oil may do more to finance governments supporting terrorism, even North Korea indirectly, than the business connections terror-free investing is meant to interupt? The goal of the fund is to deliver competitive returns while putting pressure on companies to stop doing business in terrorist countries.
The fund has a high expense ratio of about 2 percent. In spite of this, returns have been impressive - the fourth quarter return was Langerman believes that terror-free investing will ultimately produce excess returns. In his opinion, these countries' economies are not sustainable since they need other countries' support in order to survive.
The fund draws no distinction in terms of degree of involvement. Says Langerman, "Even small amounts of revenue In this case, I'm doing so because of the moral dilemma. Is it right for us as advisors to promote indirect investments in terrorist countries?
Should our clients be informed?
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