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I couldn't make up my mind. I was caught between a rock and a hard place. He had a dilemma on his hands. He was clearly between the devil and the deep blue sea. Between two equally difficult or unacceptable choices. For example, Trying to please both my boss and his supervisor puts me between a rock and a hard place. The rock and hard place version is the newest of these synonymous phrases, dating from the early s, and alludes to being caught or crushed between two rocks.
The oldest is Scylla and Charybdis, which in Homer's Odyssey signified a monster on a rock Scylla and a fatal whirlpool Charybdis , between which Odysseus had to sail through a narrow passage. It was used figuratively by the Roman writer Virgil and many writers since. The devil in devil and deep blue sea, according to lexicographer Charles Earle Funk, referred to a seam around a ship's hull near the waterline, which, if a sailor was trying to caulk it in heavy seas, would cause him to fall overboard.
Others disagree, however, and believe the phrase simply alludes to a choice between hellfire with the devil and drowning in deep waters. The first graph below is a comparison of the fed funds target rate and core inflation going back 20 years.
The story of the last twenty years can be told in different blocks of time. The Fed started to raise short-term interest rates not long after the start of the war in Iraq in , in response to the lift that war gave to the economy and inflation as most wars do. Within three years, inflation began to turn downward, but the Fed continued to raise rates - even as inflation trended down and then turned back up. After the onset of the Great Recession at the end of , inflation plunged as economic activity cratered in the wake of the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy.
The Fed eventually cut short-term rates to the They left them there until December of , when they hiked rates and left them there for an entire year before they launched a series of rate hikes that eventually caught up with inflation. They began to cut rates again in as the equity market started to express extreme displeasure with the high level of short-term rates.
It's very clear now that the gap between fed funds and inflation is the highest it has been in over 20 years. When we put unemployment in the picture, it's easy to see that the Fed is VERY patient in keeping the fed funds rate low until unemployment drops to an acceptably low level. This is why the Fed went from to without a rate hike. Now let's take a look at longer term bond yields and inflation and the gap between them.
If this graph were stretched far to the left, we would see that most of the time in the past 40 years year bond yields were at or above the rate of inflation, providing a positive REAL yield after inflation. The extraordinary amount of stimulus in response to the pandemic, along with a wealth of federal programs, has helped to bring down the unemployment rate previous graph but has boosted not only inflation but also inflation expectations as expressed by breakeven inflation rate.
Inflation expectations have risen over the past year. And while inflation expectations as reflected by breakeven rates the difference between a TIPS inflation-indexed bond and a nominal bond of the same maturity , are an imperfect indicator of the eventual level of inflation, they tend to be good on the direction.
So now the Fed is facing rising inflation they characterize it as transitory; the markets are now viewing it as more persistent and rising inflation expectations. Both should drop when supply chain bottlenecks and disruptions are alleviated.
But we know that in the short term the fastest way to lessen the gap between demand and supply is to raise prices, and that is what we are witnessing across many industries. At that schedule, the bond-buying tapering should be finished by the end of July
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Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place (Lyrics) \
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